Below is my letter published in today’s Australian, with an unwarranted addition by the Ed. And here in PDF form is an editorial in The Australian which sticks to its acceptance of “the science” but argues that it is “premature for Australia to act”.
It is a pity that The Australian does not take the obvious next step and press for an independent inquiry into “the science”, which relies for its temperature predictions on modelling that has been shown to have no credibility. I include below a graph by a real expert, Dr David Evans, which illustrates that.
Des Moore
Carbon leadership a blow to global competitiveness
(Letter published in The Australian, 30 June- 1 July. Brackets show addition by Ed)
Innes Wilcox rightly draws attention to the threat posed by the carbon tax to the international competitive position of the many Australian businesses not in receipt of compensation (“Both sides of politics should do better on carbon pricing”, Commentary, 29/6). But he overlooks the equally great threat from the renewables policies adopted by both major parties and designed to obtain 20 per cent of energy from high cost non-fossil fuel sources by 2020.
Nor does he mention that, as confirmed at the Rio+20 conference, there is now very limited prospect of any international agreement to reduce CO2 emissions.
Accordingly, by playing a lead role Australia now faces steadily decreasing international competitiveness relative to developing countries, and many developed countries too. Importantly, the former already contribute 60 per cent of emissions (increasing to 75 per cent by 2020) and recognise that reducing emissions would [most likely] have adverse effects on their attempts to reduce poverty.
Also relevant is that earlier scientific analysis supporting urgent action to prevent dangerous warming has been so heavily challenged that a consensus no longer exists.
All this suggests Australia’s carbon tax and renewables policies serve no global purpose and will simply have adverse effects on our living standards to no avail.
Des Moore, South Yarra, Vic
Analysis by Dr David Evans comparing predicted temperatures by IPCC models and what actually happened.
Predictions of the IPCC’s First Assessment Report in 1990,
versus air temperatures as measured by NASA satellites.
Dr David M.W. Evans consulted full-time for the Australian Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change) from 1999 to 2005, and part-time 2008 to 2010, modeling Australia’s carbon in plants, debris, mulch, soils, and forestry and agricultural products. Evans is a mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering.