Clusters analysis a must for Qld inquiry
letter published in The Australian Financial Review, 24 January 2011
The reactions to the widespread very heavy rainfall, particularly in Queensland, have highlighted the marked differences between climate experts (and others) on the causes and policy implications.
While it is generally agreed that the immediate cause is a La Nina event, which is a variation in climate resulting from natural changes, most experts who believe in the dangerous warming theory suggest that extreme climate events will likely occur more frequently in future and that warming will continue unless carbon dioxide emissions are reduced.
Other expert analysis shows that Australia regularly experiences clusters of both La Nina and El Nino drought events that are naturally induced. They point out that the warmist believers have not explained why, for example, the increasing emissions of CO2 during the mid 1940-mid 1970 period, or since 1998, did not produce increasing temperatures as the theory postulates. They also argue that the mid 1940-mid 1970 period experience of above average rainfall, widespread flooding and slightly falling average temperatures is consistent with this clusters theory.
If the clusters analysis is right, those responsible for policy decisions on flood protection will face a difficult situation because they will have advice from alleged experts that Australia will experience increasingly dry and warmer conditions. That would risk a repetition of government policies that, in Queensland and elsewhere, failed to recognise Australia’s climate history.
It is essential that the Queensland inquiry, and the Federal committee on a carbon price, take full account of the research supporting the clusters theory.
Des Moore
Director, Institute for Private Enterprise
South Yarra Vic.