Below is a letter I had published in The Australian on 31 Jan on floods policies and climate change. This refers inter alia to the extensive research suggesting that Australia regularly experiences clusters of both La Nina and El Nino events – but not regular enough to be predicted for particular years or periods. That research is outlined in the attached article by Mark Lawson published in the AFR on 27 Jan.
The article also indicates that the Bureau Of Meteorology is “unconvinced” about the usefulness of the research. This is not surprising given that some degree of acceptance would detract from the accepted dangerous warming theory, as well as the reliance by “experts” on modelling of future temperatures based on the supposed effects of greenhouse gas emissions.
Whatever “official” recognition might be given to the research it seems undeniable that, at the least, insufficient account is being taken of the possible effects of variations in Pacific Decadal Oscillations. Such oscillations go through warm and cool phases and, although it cannot apparently be established that such phases may in turn be reflected in the extent of La Ninas and El Ninos, it is evident that the potential for relationships to exist has not been taken into account in the debate on climate change. As pointed out in my letter in the AFR on 24 Jan, the warmists have failed, for example, to explain why the increasing emissions of CO2 during the mid -1940s to mid-1970s, or since 1998, did not produce increasing temperatures as the theory postulates. By contrast, the clusters theory is consistent with the climate experienced in the mid-1940s to mid 1970s and is potentially relevant to climate experience now.
Des Moore
PS I note that, in a letter published in the AFR on 31 Jan, a warmist attacked me on the ground that I am the only one advancing the clusters theory!
The test is whether flood levy money is spent wisely
letter published in The Australian, 31 January 2011
MANY questions arise about the $5.6 billion package announced by the federal government for flood reconstruction, not least being ensuring the efficient rebuilding of infrastructure ("PM battling flood levy backlash", 29-20/1).
Julia Gillard has said "We'll work with the state governments to assess what needs to be done." Hopefully, the supervisory arrangements she has proposed will avoid a repetition of the wasteful expenditures undertaken to (supposedly) stimulate the economy.
However, no indication has been given that the Commonwealth will review flood mitigation policies under the natural disaster relief arrangements with the states. Preliminary analysis of policies adopted by state and local governments suggests severe inadequacies that have failed to take account of past experience and in particular to recognise that Australia regularly experiences clusters of heavy rainfall as well as droughts.
Economic reform requires major action at the Council of Australian Governments level to reduce the costs borne by taxpayers as a result of these failures.
Des Moore, South Yarra, Vic