return to speeches list

IPCC Claims Are Proved False

Talk given by Des Moore on September 19, 2013 to The Australian Club

Full copy of talk available as downloadable PDF
Full copy of supporting graphs available as downloadable PDF

Today I presented at The Australian Club my analysis of “Why Global Warming Does Not Threaten Dangerous Temperatures”. The text is attached, together with the set of supporting graphs prepared by physicist Dr Tom Quirk of which each attendee had a copy as I spoke. The expert way in which the graphs have been constructed and their distribution to each attendee appeared to work well in allowing the audience to follow the text. Also of importance was the exposure of the results of two new bits of research by Tom Quirk.

The text and graphs dismiss a number of the claims and calculations made by the IPCC, the climate research bodies and the weather agencies. Of particular importance is the demonstration, firstly, that the method of calculating daily temperatures by weather agencies both here and overseas has resulted in overstating the increase  in temperatures over the last 100 years or so by around 0.3-0.4 of a degree. Secondly, analysis of the increase of 0.4 of a degree in temperatures in the period from 1977-98 shows that this was due to natural causes. What this suggests is that none of the increase of 0.8 of a degree over the last 100 years was due to emissions of fossil fuels and that government actions to reduce their usage should be stopped asap.

A summary of the text and graphs is downloadable at the top and bottom of this page.

Des Moore

---

Dangerous Warming Thesis?

NO Govt Action Needed to Reduce Fossil Fuel Emissions

• The “experts” themselves are uncertain about the science but have manipulated data to “help” – see Climate-Gate emails. The science section of the 2007 IPCC Report also acknowledged hundreds of uncertainties but these were omitted from the Summary for politicians/media/general public. Leaks from upcoming IPCC V report (27/9) suggest backpedalling on estimates of possible future temp increases and some qualifications on previous science-based conclusions – but it still retains the dangerous warming thesis.
• The Garnaut report commissioned by the previous government says that there would no adverse effects this century from allowing fossil fuel emissions to continue. More carbon dioxide increases plant growth.
• Even if fossil fuel emissions do cause some increase in temperatures, technological advances in other energy sources, including nuclear, should in due course provide their increased use on an efficient basis without governments reducing emissions
• The IPCC “science” concludes that additions to temperatures occur from the radiation back to earth from C02 concentrations accumulated in the atmosphere. But others say that evaporation from oceans has major dampening effect. And if published temperature increases were to be correctly calculated (see below), the published increase of 0.8 of a degree over the last 100 years would largely disappear.
• Analysis of periods during last century when temperatures increased show two periods (1939-77 and 1998 to date) when emissions were increasing but temperatures were not. In the other main period (1977-98) the increase was naturally caused. This came from an ocean temperature change, known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
• Hence, of published temperature increase over the past 100 years, about half reflected natural causes.
• Quirk analysis shows calculation of daily temperatures in Australian by averaging the minimum and maximum overstates the published temperature increase by 0.3-04 of a degree compared with averaging of every 30 minutes. This miscalculation happens with overseas temperatures too. And hence with modeling too.
• Quirk analysis shows that the percentage of emissions that stays in the atmosphere is only about 15% not the 55 % assumed by the IPCC. Hence a smaller base from which radiation occurs.
• An upward bias exists in published Australian temperatures  because BOM does not appear to adjust recorded temperatures to take account of heat retained in buildings. Some overseas agencies also fail to adjust.
• Hence the actual average global temperature increase over the past 100 years may be close to zero. If correct, whether any causal correlation exists between changes in temperatures and changes in CO2 concentration levels must be open to serious question.
• None of the many temperature predictions modelled by the IPCC have coincided with actual published temperatures.
• It is now widely accepted that humans experienced higher temperatures during the Medieval Warming Period (about 800-1,100AD) and also in the Greco-Roman warm period (600 BC - 200 AD) when fossil fuel usage would have been small.
• The sharp increase in the contribution of methane gases to atmospheric concentrations between 1940 and 1980, and the then subsequent sharp drop, reflected the rise and fall of initial leakages from pipelines and the subsequent fixing of those leakages. The CSIRO wrongly used the increase as an example of the greenhouse gas “problem”.
• Past Australian droughts occurred when global temperatures were lower than now and wetter years occurred when such temperatures were rising. Hanrahan is always around.
• The variations in Murray Darling Basin annual rainfall show no connection with levels or variations in Australia’s average temperature and there is no sign of a downward trend in rainfall there.
• Satellite measurements of sea levels from 1994 show an average rate of increase of about 3mm a year or 20cms by 2100 - at the lower end of the 2007 IPCC prediction (18-59cms) and not threatening. Individual property owners should have time to take any protective action necessary.
• Meltings in the Arctic have been increasing (although some recent re-icing) but these have no effect on sea levels because the ice there is already in the sea.
• In the Antarctic, the total ice area there has been increasing and recently reached record levels. Satellite data covering the past thirty years show a distinct cooling of the Antarctic region.
• Any bleachings on the Great Barrier Reef caused by increased temperatures cannot be stopped by Australia alone. Earlier bleachings were followed by some recoveries in coral.
• Estimates compiled by the IPCC of the ten various possible warming and cooling influences on temperatures are subject to wide margins of error. In some cases the published extent of possible errors reflects “expert” opinions not the result of testing.

Des Moore
September 2013

Full copy of talk available as downloadable PDF
Full copy of supporting graphs available as downloadable PDF

return to speeches list